Global Equity portfolio outlook, positioning, and attribution as of 3/31/2021
March 31, 2021
Outlook
- We expect the global economic recovery to continue in 2021, amid continued U.S. consumer strength and business investment as COVID-19 vaccinations help release pent-up demand in certain parts of the economy.
- We anticipate positive equity market returns this year as rising earnings expectations for cyclical stocks should offset a likely decline in valuation multiples, which is typical early in a cycle.
- Internationally, European economic growth is likely, in our view, to be materially lower than that of the U.S. in Q1 due to renewed lockdown measures, while economic data has shown that Emerging Asia leads other regions in its economic recovery, which should support positive GDP and earnings growth in 2021.
- Even though economic and market risks remain, including potential for higher interest rates and higher taxes in the U.S., we believe the global economic recovery will continue to progress and an overweight of economically-sensitive sectors is appropriate.
Portfolio Positioning
- Sector allocation will be increasingly important in the U.S. in 2021, in our view, as the ongoing recovery and expansion drive a rebound in earnings for cyclical sectors and areas of the economy hardest hit by the pandemic, such as retail, travel, and leisure.
- Given our outlook for the global economic recovery to continue in 2021, we maintain exposures to more economically-sensitive areas of the markets, including Emerging Asia and U.S. Financials, Industrials, Energy, and small-cap equities.
- Over the past year, we have reduced exposure to less economically-sensitive areas of the market such as the large-cap U.S. Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors.
- We maintain an overweight of Emerging Asian equities, which provides exposure to favorable sector composition and positive secular trends, but at a discount to the U.S., while we maintain an underweight to Europe and Japan.
Q1 Attribution
Positive Contributors:
Overweight
- U.S. Large-Cap Energy
- U.S. Large-Cap Financials
- U.S. Large-Cap Industrials
Underweight
- U.S. Large-Cap Information Technology
Negative Contributors:
Underweight
- North America ex-U.S.
- U.S. Large-Cap Materials
Attribution Analysis is relative to the MSCI ACWI (Net) Index benchmark and was current as of the date specified in this presentation. A complete attribution report is available upon request.
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Any portfolio characteristics, including position sizes and sector allocations among others, are generally averages and are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect the investments of an actual portfolio unless otherwise noted. The investment guidelines of an actual portfolio may permit or restrict investments that are materially different in size, nature and risk from those shown. The investment processes, research processes or risk processes shown herein are for informational purposes to demonstrate an overview of the process. Such processes may differ by product, client mandate or market conditions. Portfolios that are concentrated in a specific sector or industry may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than a portfolio whose investments are more diversified.
Holdings, Sector Weightings, and Portfolio Characteristics were current as of the date specified in this presentation. The listing of particular securities should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell these securities. While these securities were among WestEnd Advisors’ Global Equity holdings at the time this material was assembled, holdings will change over time. There can be no assurance that the securities remain in the portfolio or that other securities have not been purchased. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities presently in the portfolio. Individual clients’ portfolios may vary. Upon request, WestEnd Advisors will provide a list of all recommendations for the prior year.