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Quarterly Commentaries

Market Calm Ends, Economic Expansion Extends – Q1 2018

While equity markets saw a return of volatility in the first quarter, our fundamental economic and corporate earnings outlook has not shifted materially. We expect continued moderate economic growth globally, with rising inflation and interest rates in the U.S. and continued structural challenges abroad.
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The More Things Change… – Q4 2017

A lot changed in 2017, but the trend of global economic growth did not. We expect modest economic growth to continue in 2018 along with continued equity market gains. However, we also anticipate sector opportunities and risks will be more pronounced as the economic cycle continues to mature.
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Calm Surface, Shifting Undercurrents – Q3 2017

Broad market indices have shown little volatility of late, echoing slow-but-steady global economic growth that we expect will continue. Mercurial investor focus, however, has led to intermittent swings in market leadership. Investors should look to fundamentals to navigate this late cycle expansion.
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Rising Above Modest Circumstances – Q2 2017

Modest economic growth continues globally, even as we see little potential for acceleration. Seek opportunity in areas of the markets with cyclical or secular growth drivers and reasonable valuations.
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Investors Feel Better, But Real Change Takes Time – Q1 2017

Investors refocus on fundamental growth opportunities as the political reality sets in – that a new administration’s policies almost always fall short of the hopes, fears, and campaign rhetoric that surround them. Expect continued moderate economic growth in the U.S. and challenges abroad.
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A Moderate Extension of the Cycle – Q4 2016

Anticipated pro-growth policies in the U.S. may extend moderate economic growth, though a strong reacceleration is unlikely. We favor U.S. equity sectors with reasonably priced growth opportunities, while economically-sensitive sectors, yield-driven securities, and foreign markets face risks.
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Looking at the Big Picture – Q3 2016

The U.S. economy has come a long way in the current expansion, thanks more to its duration than its pace. Risks have gone up, but we see room for continued slow growth ahead. Still, a sustained economic reacceleration is unlikely in the U.S. or abroad.
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The information contained within each report was current at the time the report was created and may change over time.