U.S. GDP – Q2 2017 (Third Estimate)

Released Thursday, September 28, 2017

downloadsReal GDP: +3.1% quarter-over-quarter (annualized rate) (Cons: +3.1%), +2.2% year-over-year
Real Final Sales: +2.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized rate), +2.2% year-over-year

Quick Take:
The third estimate of Q2 real GDP growth of 3.1% was not very different from the second estimate which was 3.0% growth. Within the report, there were no material revisions to the major subcategories.

The quarter-over-quarter growth rate for Q2 real GDP was the highest rate of growth since Q1 2015. This might seem like an acceleration, but as we have seen before, quarterly GDP growth can be more volatile and instead we look to year-over-year GDP growth in order to better understand the underlying growth trend.

Year-over-year growth improved to 2.2%. While this marks the highest year-over-year growth since Q3 2015, the U.S. economy remains on a very similar trajectory to that of the last several years, which is year-over-year growth in the 2% to 2.5% range.

We believe that the fundamentals for the consumer remain healthy and that consumption should continue to drive year-over-year GDP growth at a similar rate to that of Q2.